The End of the Driver License

Around 10 years ago, when autonomous vehicles were first getting seriously hyped, people started dreaming about cheap commutes in robotaxis.

Uber and Lyft were heavily subsidizing rides to attract customers, while convincing everyone that owning a car was financially irrational anyway. Simple math for simple-minded people. What a sweet dream.

Years later, rideshare is expensive. What a surprise.

People started reconsidering whether living without a car actually made financial sense. Except in Silicon Valley, where everyone is permanently drunk on the next big idea and still “so stoked” about all the opportunities technology is supposedly going to unlock.

Can we solve whatever problem with technology? Yes! Let’s go ahead and create more apps and gadgets nobody asked for.

Now there is actual competition in autonomous rideshare, with vehicles driving without a human safety driver in some operating areas. People are thrilled, and the fanboys are hyping the technology to levels previously reserved for the invention of fire and the iPhone. Tesla is going its own way, dumping robotaxis into traffic while the reliability and operating boundaries of its FSD system remain hotly debated. Its wannabe-trillionaire CEO basically keeps telling everyone, “We’re good.” If it works on Mars, apparently it should work on Earth. No time to lose in the autonomous race. And certainly no time to lose when the stock price needs another miracle.

But advertising the thrill of riding in a car without a human driver isn't enough anymore. Nobody really knows what the long-term adoption rates will look like. Are people actually convinced? Or do they simply want the ride to be cheap? And if it isn't cheap, people expect to be pampered with luxury amenities.

Look inside many robotaxis and the interior can be about as depressing as having a birthday party inside a gas-station bathroom.

So there must be more. And if you can't persuade people to use something voluntarily, perhaps you need another strategy:

Make the alternative illegal.

And here comes the really interesting idea. What if, eventually, private car ownership becomes unnecessary—or even heavily restricted?

No need to own a car. No need to maintain it. No need to park it. No need to have a driver’s license. Just summon one whenever you need it.

The smart crowd already talks about a future where people won't need driver’s licenses anymore. Give it another decade or two, and maybe the logic evolves from “you won't need a car” to “why are you still allowed to have one?”

Problem solved. Everyone uses rideshare. And suddenly this isn't just a transportation innovation. It's a fantastic money-printing machine.

You don't have a choice anymore. You don't buy the service because it is better. You buy it because the alternatives have disappeared. Mandated convenience.

What could possibly go wrong? Of course, someone will tell you that this is all about efficiency. Fewer cars. Better utilization. Safer roads. Less congestion. More sustainable transportation. And maybe some of those things will actually be true.

But there is a rather inconvenient word that tends to disappear from these conversations:

Liberty.

There is something fundamentally different between choosing not to own a car and being told you don't need—or aren't allowed—to own one.

I personally can't wait for the autonomous car to take me off-roading and camping. I'm sure it will be fantastic. The car will analyze the terrain, consult its maps, calculate the optimal route and confidently drive me toward the most efficient path down a cliff because apparently the road ended 500 feet ago.

No problem. It probably works perfectly on Mars. And if the autonomous car gets confused in the wilderness, don't worry. Social media companies will be thrilled. Finally, some new content.

“Driverless car attempts shortcut through National Park.”

“Robotaxi stuck in mud for six hours.”

“Autonomous SUV discovers gravity.”

Disneyland is getting expensive anyway. Maybe the future of entertainment is simply getting into a driverless car and seeing what happens.

So enjoy your driver’s license. Enjoy your car. Enjoy being able to decide where you go, when you go, and whether you want to drive yourself there.

Because if the futurists are right, one day you might not need a driver’s license anymore.

And apparently, that will be progress.

Until then, enjoy the ride.